Saints’ season prospect leaves a queasy feeling

By Ed Daniels, Sports

Is this the year the Saints orchestrate a turnaround?

After all, they are big favorites in the NFC South, a division that could be the worst in the NFL.

And, the Saints will play, based on projected win totals, the easiest schedule in the NFL.

The Saints were also 26th in fumble luck (yes, there is such a statistic), and near the bottom of the league in injury luck and turnover differential.

So, why do I have a queasy feeling about the 2023 Saints?

Well, the offensive line, which could be starting four first-round picks and one second-round pick, was ranked 26th by Pro Football Focus in run and pass blocking grades.

The Saints, still thin at wide receiver, are counting on Michael Thomas to make a big impact, even though he has just 56 receptions in the past three seasons.

And, the Saints are counting on a big season from quarterback Derek Carr.

Carr, with Las Vegas in 2022, posted his worst passer rating since his rookie season.

He completed 60.8% of his passes, with 24 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.

And, he did so, throwing to one of the top receivers in the NFL, Devante Adams (100 receptions, 14 TDs), and handing the ball to Josh Jacobs, who led the NFL in rushing (1,653 yards).

The Saints moved on from Andy Dalton, who had a higher completion percentage (66.7) than Carr. Dalton also averaged 7.6 yards per attempt, compared to Carr’s 7.0.

The Saints are banking they will get the 2020 version of Carr, when he completed 67.3% of his throws, 27 for touchdowns, with only nine interceptions.

Were the Raiders right to move on from Carr or was the quarterback the scapegoat for an organization in constant turmoil?

In nine seasons, Derek Carr played in two home cities, for four permanent head coaches, and two interims.

If Carr plays well, the Saints have a chance to make a playoff run.

In the meantime, here’s some numbers to chew on. It might be an unfair comparison, but here it is:

In his career, Carr has thrown 30 touchdown passes in a season, once.

Drew Brees did it 10 times.

Defensively, the Saints ranked fifth in the NFL in total yards allowed per game but 24th in rushing yards per game.

In 2021, they allowed 93.5 rush yards per game. A year later, that number was 130.5.

The Saints signed unrestricted free agent defensive tackles Khalen Saunders and Nathan Shepherd and used their first-round pick on Bryan Bresee, in an attempt to rebuild their interior defensive line.

One of the most interesting items to watch going into the 2023 season is the role that Taysom Hill plays in the offense. When Hill got 23 snaps or more, the Saints won six and lost two.

So, optimism runs high as the Saints kickoff training camp.

And, with a soft schedule, a less than formidable division, and what the Saints feel is a big upgrade at quarterback, they should win the NFC South.

Anything less is a big disappointment.

Ed Daniels is sports director of ABC26 WGNO. He can be reached at [email protected].